Issues Related to Incorporating Northern Peatlands into Global Climate Models

Northern peatlands cover ~3–4 million km2 (~10% of the land north of 45°N) and contain ~200–400 Pg carbon (~10–20% of total global soil carbon), almost entirely as peat (organic soil). Recent developments in global climate models have included incorporation of the terrestrial carbon cycle and representation of several terrestrial ecosystem types and processes in their land surface modules. Peatlands share many general properties with upland, mineral-soil ecosystems, and general ecosystem carbon, water, and energy cycle functions (productivity, decomposition, water infiltration, evapotranspiration, runoff, latent, sensible, and ground heat fluxes). However, northern peatlands also have several unique characteristics that will require some rethinking or revising of land surface algorithms in global climate models. Here we review some of these characteristics, deep organic soils, a significant fraction of bryophyte vegetation, shallow water tables, spatial heterogeneity, anaerobic biogeochemistry, and disturbance regimes, in the context of incorporating them into global climate models. With the incorporation of peatlands, global climate models will be able to simulate the fate of northern peatland carbon under climate change, and estimate the magnitude and strength of any climate system feedbacks associated with the dynamics of this large carbon pool

The impact of a northern peatland on the earth’s radiative budget: sustained methane emission versus sustained carbon sequestration

Northern peatlands sequester carbon and emit methane, and thus have both cooling and warming impacts on the climate system through their influence on atmospheric burdens of CO2 and CH4. These competing impacts are usually compared by the global warming potential (GWP) methodology, which determines the equivalent CO2 annual emission that would have the same integrated radiative forcing impact over a chosen time horizon as the annual CH4 emission. We use a simple model of CH4 and CO2 pools in the atmosphere to extend this analysis to quantify the dynamics, over years to millennia, of the net radiative forcing impact of a peatland that continuously emits CH4 and sequesters C. We find that for observed ratios of CH4 emission to C sequestration (roughly .01-2 mol mol-1), the radiative forcing impact of a northern peatland begins, at peatland formation, as a net warming that peaks after about 50 years, remains a diminishing net warming for the next several hundred to several thousand years, depending on the rate of C sequestration, and thereafter is or will be an ever increasing net cooling impact. We then use the model to evaluate the radiative forcing impact of various changes in CH4 and/or CO2 emissions. In all cases, the impact of a change in CH4 emissions dominates the radiative forcing impact in the first few decades, and then the impact of the change in CO2 emissions slowly exerts its influence

The importance of northern peatlands in global carbon systems during the Holocene

We applied an inverse model to simulate global carbon (C) cycle dynamics during the Holocene period using atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations reconstructed from Antarctic ice cores and prescribed C accumulation rates of Northern Peatlands (NP) as inputs. Previous studies indicated that different sources could contribute to the 20 parts per million by volume (ppmv) atmospheric CO2 increase over the past 8000 years. These sources of C include terrestrial release of 40–200 petagram C (PgC, 1 petagram=1015 gram), deep oceanic adjustment to a 500 PgC terrestrial biomass buildup early in this interglacial period, and anthropogenic land-use and land-cover changes of unknown magnitudes. Our study shows that the prescribed peatland C accumulation significantly modifies our previous understanding of Holocene C cycle dynamics. If the buildup of the NP is considered, the terrestrial pool becomes the C sink of about 160–280 PgC over the past 8000 years, and the only C source for the terrestrial and atmospheric C increases is presumably from the deep ocean due to calcium carbonate compensation. Future studies need to be conducted to constrain the basal times and growth rates of the NP C accumulation in the Holocene. These research endeavors are challenging because they need a dynamically-coupled peatland simulator to be constrained with the initiation time and reconstructed C reservoir of the NP. Our results also suggest that the huge reservoir of deep ocean C explains the major variability of the glacial-interglacial C cycle dynamics without considering the anthropogenic C perturbation

Exploring the limits of knowledge on boreal peatland development using a new model: the Holocene Peatland Model

The Holocene Peatland Model (HPM) (Frolking et al. 2009, Frolking et al. in prep.) is a recently developed tool integrating up-to-date knowledge on peatland dynamics that explores peatland development and carbon dynamics on a millennial timescale. HPM combines the water and carbon cycles with net primary production and peat decomposition and takes the multiple feedbacks into account. The model remains simple and few site-specific inputs are needed. HPM simulates the transient development of the peatland and delivers peat age, peat depth, peat composition, carbon accumulation and water table depth for each simulated year. Evaluating the ability of the model to reproduce peatland development can be achieved in several manners. Commonly one could choose to compare simulations results with observations from field data. However, we argue that the overall response of the model does not give much information about the value of the model design. Modelling of peatlands dynamics requires a lot of information regarding the behaviour of a peatland system within its environment (including allogenic changes in climate, hydrological conditions, nutrient availability or autogenic processes such as microtopographical effects). The actual state of knowledge does not cover all processes, interactions or feedbacks and a lot of peatland properties are neither well defined nor measured yet, so that estimates have been needed to build the model. The work presented here aims at analyzing the role of the model parameterization on the simulation results. To do so, a sensitivity analysis is performed with a Monte-Carlo analysis and with help of the GUI-HDMR software (Ziehn and Tomlin, 2009). This method ranks the parameters and combinations of them according to their influence on simulation results. The results will emphasize how the simulation is sensitive to the parameter values. First, the distribution of outputs gives insight into the possible responses of the simulation to HPM’s assemblage of current knowledge. Second, the importance of some parameters on simulation results points out certain gaps in the current understanding of peatland dynamics. Thus, this study helps determine some avenues that should be explored in future in order to improve peatlands dynamics understanding

The first-order effect of Holocene Northern Peatlands on global carbon cycle dynamics

Given the fact that the estimated present-day carbon storage of Northern Peatlands (NP) is about 300–500 petagram (PgC, 1 petagram = 1015 gram), and the NP has been subject to a slow but persistent growth over the Holocene epoch, it is desirable to include the NP in studies of Holocene carbon cycle dynamics. Here we use an Earth system Model of Intermediate Complexity to study the first-order effect of NP on global carbon cycle dynamics in the Holocene. We prescribe the reconstructed NP growth based on data obtained from numerous sites (located in Western Siberia, North America, and Finland) where peat accumulation records have been developed. Using an inverse method, we demonstrate that the long-term debates over potential source and/or sink of terrestrial ecosystem in the Holocene are clarified by using an inverse method, and our results suggest that the primary carbon source for the changes (sinks) of atmospheric and terrestrial carbon is the ocean, presumably, due to the deep ocean sedimentation pump (the so-called alkalinity pump). Our paper here complements ref. 1 by sensitivity tests using modified boundary conditions

Can continental bogs with stand the pressure due to climate change?

Not all peatlands are alike. Theoretical and process based models suggest that ombrogenic, oligotrophic peatlands can withstand the pressures due to climate change because of the feedbacks among ecosystem production, decomposition and water storage. Although there have been many inductive explanations inferring from paleo-records, there is a lack of deductive empirical tests of the models predictions of these systems’ stability and there are few records of the changes in the net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) of peatlands that are long enough to examine the dynamics of the NECB in relation to climate variability. Continuous measurements of all the components of the NECB and the associated general climatic and environmental conditions have been made at the Mer Bleue (MB) peatland, a large, 28 km2, 5 m deep, raised ombro-oligotrophic, shrub and Sphagnum covered bog, near Ottawa, Canada from May 1, 1998 until the present. The sixteen-year daily CO2, CH4, and DOC flux and NECB covers a wide range of variability in peatland water storage from very dry to very wet growing seasons. We used the MB data to test the extent of MB peatland’s stability and the strength of the underlying key feedback between the NECB and changes in water storage projected by the models. In 2007 we published a six-year (1999-2004) net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) for MB of ∼22 ± 40 g C m-2 yr-1, but we have since recalculated the 1998-2004 NECB to be 32 ± 40 g C m-2 yr-1 based on a reanalyzed average NEP of 51 ± 41 g C m-2 yr-1. Over the same period the net loss of C via the CH4 and DOC fluxes were -4 ± 1 and -15 ± 3 g C m-2 yr-1. The 1998-2004 six-year MB average NECB is similar to the long-term C accumulation rate, estimated from MB peat cores, for the last 3,000 years. The post 2004 MB NEP has increased to an average of ∼96 ± 32 g C m-2 yr-1 largely to there being generally wetter growing seasons. The losses of C via DOC (18 ± 1 g C m-2 yr-1) and CH4 (7 ± 4 g C m-2 yr-1) while showing considerable year-to-year variability are not significantly different post 2004. Hence, the proportional loss of C as DOC and CH4 in the MB NECB is slightly less post-2004 than it was before 2004 though the cumulative errors preclude statistically differences. As a result the MB NECB has increased to 79 ± 29 g C m-2 yr-1 post 2004 yielding a 14 year contemporary NECB of 56 ± 36 g C m-2 yr-1, which is double the long-term accumulation rate of C. The variability in the annual NECB and growing season mean NEP for the MB bog can be explained (r2 = 0.35, p \u3c 0.01) by the variability in growing season water table depth. These results suggest the carbon balance – water table feedback is sufficient enough to create stability in continental bogs so they will withstand a considerable amount of climate change

A new model of Holocene peatland net primary production, decomposition, water balance, and peat accumulation

Peatland carbon and water cycling are tightly coupled, so dynamic modeling of peat accumulation over decades to millennia should account for carbon-water feedbacks. We present initial results from a new simulation model of long-term peat accumulation, evaluated at a wellstudied temperate bog in Ontario, Canada. The Holocene Peat Model (HPM) determines vegetation community composition dynamics and annual net primary productivity based on peat depth (as a proxy for nutrients and acidity) and water table depth. Annual peat (carbon) accumulation is the net balance above- and below-ground productivity and litter/peat decomposition – a function of peat hydrology (controlling depth to and degree of anoxia). Peat bulk density is simulated as a function of degree of humification, and affects the water balance through its influence on both the growth rate of the peat column and on peat hydraulic conductivity and the capacity to shed water. HPM output includes both time series of annual carbon and water fluxes, peat height, and water table depth, as well as a final peat profile that can be “cored” and compared to field observations of peat age and macrofossil composition. A stochastic 8500-yr, annual precipitation time series was constrained by a published Holocene climate reconstruction for southern Quebec. HPM simulated 5.4 m of ´ peat accumulation (310 kg C m−2 ) over 8500 years, 6.5% of total NPP over the period. Vascular plant functional types accounted for 65% of total NPP over 8500 years but only 35% of the final (contemporary) peat mass. Simulated age-depth and carbon accumulation profiles were compared to a radiocarbon dated 5.8 m, c.9000-yr core. The simulated core was younger than observations at most depths, but had a similar overall trajectory; carbon accumulation rates were generally higher in the simulation and were somewhat more variable than observations. HPM results were sensitive to centuryscale anomalies in precipitation, with extended drier periods (precipitation reduced ∼10%) causing the peat profile to lose carbon (and height), despite relatively small changes in NP